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Full Manure Recycling Risks an 18% Rise in China's Cropland N2O Emissions Without Improved Management.

Shidi Ba1, Zhaohai Bai2, Lin Ma2,3

  • 1School of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK.

Global Change Biology
|April 13, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Manure substitution can reduce nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions from Chinese croplands. However, without improved nutrient management, 100% manure recycling may increase N2O-N losses by 18% by 2050.

Keywords:
Chinese croplandN2O‐N lossboosted regression tree modelfertilizationmachine learningmanure substitution

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Soil Science

Background:

  • Cropland fertilization is China's largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions.
  • Manure substitution offers a mitigation strategy, but accurate quantification is hindered by data limitations and complex interactions between chemical and manure nitrogen sources.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop advanced models for estimating N2O-N emissions from fertilized croplands in China.
  • To investigate the impact of manure substitution strategies on N2O-N losses, considering nitrogen source interactions.
  • To provide a high-resolution modeling framework for predicting future N2O-N emission trends.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a dataset of 2186 observations across China.
  • Developed machine-learning models incorporating climate, soil, fertilization, and cropping variables.
  • Focused on the manure component and nitrogen source interaction effects on N2O-N production.

Main Results:

  • Estimated a median N2O-N flux of 1.1 kg ha-1 and a total national loss of 243.7 Gg in 2019, with a hotspot in Northcentral China.
  • Identified annual total nitrogen input as the primary driver of N2O-N losses from 2000-2019.
  • Projected an 18% increase in N2O-N losses by 2050 if 100% manure recycling is pursued without improved nutrient use efficiency.

Conclusions:

  • Accurate N2O-N emission modeling requires considering nitrogen source interactions and manure nutrient management.
  • Future manure substitution policies must integrate enhanced recycling rates with improved manure nutrient management to effectively mitigate N2O-N emissions.