Prognostic prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma using multi-region interaction features based on MRI habitat...

Tumor tissues exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, which affects proliferation rate, invasiveness, and sensitivity to drugs and radiotherapy. Traditional radiomics typically quantifies intra-tumoral heterogeneity using global whole-tumor features, but does not explicitly model spatial sub-regions or localized heterogeneity patterns. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) habitat-based multi-regional spatial interaction (MSI) model to non-invasively characterize intratumoral spatial heterogeneity and improve mortality prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

We retrospectively enrolled 1,297 NPC patients for death risk prediction. Using the K-Means clustering algorithm, tumor regions were decomposed into four biologically distinct habitat subregions. A MSI matrix was constructed to systematically extract 45 MSI features characterizing tumor heterogeneity. Feature analysis revealed significant differences between high- and low-risk groups in Boundary Volume Class 3-4 (t-test, P=0.024) and Volume Class 4 (t-test, P=0.011). Due to severe imbalance in death samples, a stratified sampling strategy was employed to create 10 balanced training subsets and one test set. After feature selection, a decision tree model was trained on each balanced training subset, and the final prediction for the test set was obtained through a weighted ensemble of the ten models based on their respective training areas under the curve (AUCs). In addition, a conventional radiomics model was constructed in parallel as a comparative baseline.

The experimental results demonstrated that the decision tree model constructed using the MSI features achieved the best predictive performance on the test set [AUC: 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.88), accuracy: 0.75, recall: 0.80], outperforming other machine learning models such as random forest and logistic regression. Further evaluation using calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model achieves well-calibrated probability estimation and robust discrimination, providing reliable predictions with a higher net clinical benefit across different risk thresholds, and exhibiting superior prognostic performance compared with conventional radiomics models.

Therefore, the MSI features derived from MRI-based habitat analysis enable quantitative assessment of the intratumoral spatial heterogeneity of NPC. As an interpretable biomarker framework, this approach overcomes the limitations of conventional radiomics in which heterogeneity is summarized in a global, non-spatial manner. The resulting model provides an innovative imaging-based solution for prognostic evaluation in NPC and holds potential clinical value for risk stratification and the development of individualized treatment strategies.