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Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools for Violent Extremism: A Systematic Review.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This review found that while tools for assessing violent extremism risk show promise in research settings, their field validation is inconsistent. More high-quality studies are needed to confirm their reliability and predictive accuracy for preventing violent extremism.

Keywords:
ERG22+MLG‐V2TRAP‐18VERAreliabilityrisk assessmentsystematic reviewvalidityviolent extremismviolent radicalization

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Criminology
  • Security Studies
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • The assessment of violent radicalization and extremism risk has rapidly evolved, drawing from psychology and criminology.
  • Scholars in preventing violent extremism (PVE) have adapted violence risk assessment tools, but psychometric validation remains a concern.
  • Existing PVE risk tools are relatively new, necessitating a systematic review of their reliability and validity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically review and critically appraise evidence on the reliability and validity of tools used for assessing violent extremism risk.
  • To synthesize findings on the appropriateness and utility of these tools across different populations and contexts.
  • To identify evidence gaps in the psychometric validation of PVE risk assessment tools.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic literature review of studies published up to December 31, 2021, across multiple databases and repositories.
  • Inclusion of studies with primary quantitative data on the reliability and validity of PVE risk assessment tools usable by practitioners.
  • Data extraction and analysis followed Campbell Collaboration guidelines, with risk of bias assessed using a modified COSMIN checklist; meta-analysis or narrative synthesis was employed.

Main Results:

  • Nineteen manuscripts (20 studies) evaluated structured professional judgment tools (e.g., TRAP-18, ERG22+) and one actuarial scale.
  • Inter-rater agreement was strong in research but disappointing in field settings; content validity was adequate, but construct validity was limited.
  • Internal consistency varied, and only TRAP-18 showed a strong postdictive effect, though all studies used retrospective designs, lacking true predictive validity.

Conclusions:

  • Current empirical validation is insufficient to recommend specific PVE risk tools over others due to substantial threats to validity and evidence gaps.
  • The reviewed tools serve as useful checklists for identifying risk and protective factors in assessing violent extremism.
  • Higher-quality validation studies are crucial for advancing the field of PVE risk assessment and ensuring tool efficacy.