Assessing Near-Source Health and Equity Impacts of Liquefied Natural Gas Terminals

Growing global demand for natural gas has driven the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, which emit pollutants that can pose health risks to nearby communities. This study presents a novel modeling framework using the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) to assess near-source nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure, health impacts, and equity implications at the block-group level. We apply this methodology to four LNG export terminals in the United States, simulating NO₂ concentrations within a 50 km radius. Results show that LNG terminals substantially contribute to near-source air pollution, with simulated 1-hr maximum NO₂ concentrations reaching up to 16% of the EPA's National Ambient Air Quality Standard (100 ppb). Site-specific maximum concentrations were 15.7 ppb (Site A), 1.6 ppb (B), 10.7 ppb (C), and 0.3 ppb (D). Comparing NO₂ concentrations with demographic patterns, Sites A and D showed higher concentrations, higher proportions of People of Color and low-income populations, and greater health burdens in communities closer to the LNG facilities, indicating potential disproportionate impacts. The other sites showed weak or no spatial inequity patterns. Estimated annual NO₂-attributable all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 people were 8.2 (A), 0.6 (B), 2.2 (C), and 0.1 (D); annual NO₂-attributable pediatric asthma rates per 100,000 children were 75.5 (A), 6.2 (B), 21.8 (C), and 1.1 (D). This study demonstrates how regulatory dispersion models like AERMOD can be adapted to evaluate near-source health and equity impacts of industrial emissions and offers a transferable methodology for similar analyses across other high-emitting facilities.