Local and distal processes determine precipitation isotope records in the Great Plains USA

Nuanced characterizations of moisture source dynamics and local hydrometeorological processes are essential for interpreting long-term records of stable isotopes in precipitation. Here, we analyze over two decades of stable isotope records from a site in the Great Plains of United States, revealing a distinct seasonal contrast in δ¹⁸O variability between warm (March-November) and cold (December-February) periods. During the warm season, isotopic enrichment was largely driven by enhanced convective activity and sub-cloud evaporation under high VPD conditions. Back-trajectory diagnostics indicate that continental moisture sources dominate precipitation at the study site, while Gulf of Mexico transport via the Great Plains low-level jet exerts a disproportionate influence on δ¹⁸O and d-excess variability. During extreme precipitation years, isotopic signatures reflect the combined effects of atmospheric circulation anomalies and local aridity. The 2012 drought year exhibited elevated δ¹⁸O and reduced d-excess consistent with enhanced kinetic fractionation under dry conditions, whereas the wet year 2019 showed isotopic enrichment associated with intensified Gulf-sourced moisture transport under humid conditions. These findings demonstrate how precipitation δ¹⁸O in the Great Plains integrates both local evaporative demand and large-scale moisture transport processes. Given ongoing challenges in representing humidity trends and regional hydroclimate dynamics in climate models, improved characterization of moisture sources and isotope variability is critical for evaluating model projections and interpreting long-term climate change in semi-arid continental regions.