The Futures of Digital Democracy: Four Scenarios

This paper investigates the potential impacts of digitalisation on society and democratic governance through the construction of four realist science fiction scenarios. The study aims to delineate desirable and undesirable digital futures to inform policy discourse and strategic planning. It begins with the outlining of the research basis and methodology, where it employs a methodological synthesis of the Scenario Development Technique from the UN Strategic Foresight Guide and STEEP Analysis. This approach integrates a macro environmental assessment of socio-cultural, technological, economic, environmental, and political dimensions to identify key drivers of change and differences. These are then mapped onto a two-by-two matrix defined by two primary axes. This combination enabled the development of four scenarios examining the impact of digital technologies across these dimensions. The scenarios diverge along two axes. The vertical axis represents the mode of societal organisation and political power (authoritarianism versus democracy). The horizontal axis represents the mode of governance and citizen engagement (representation versus participation). By contrasting these divergent paths, this paper provides a critical framework for analysing how digital technologies intersect with political will and socioeconomic structures.