High impact low probability events: research landscape and future opportunities

Area of Science:

• Disaster Risk Reduction
• Resilience Science
• Crisis Management

Background:

• High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events present significant challenges to traditional disaster risk reduction frameworks due to their extreme consequences and unpredictability.
• Existing probability-based risk assessment models often fail to address the full scope of HILP events, leaving critical vulnerabilities unaddressed.
• The increasing complexity of systemic and cascading crises exacerbates the challenge posed by HILP events.

Purpose of the Study:

• To synthesize current academic discourse on High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events.
• To identify the defining characteristics and implications of HILPs for disaster preparedness and response.
• To highlight limitations in conventional planning tools and advocate for adaptive strategies.

Main Methods:

• A semi-systematic state-of-the-art literature review.
• Analysis of 109 academic papers on HILP events.
• Synthesis of current academic discourse and identification of key themes and gaps.

Main Results:

• HILP events are increasingly recognized in national risk registers and post-disaster response frameworks.
• Integration of HILPs into preparedness, training, and governance systems remains limited.
• A significant gap exists in translating theoretical insights into operational strategies for pre-crisis deployment.

Conclusions:

• Conventional disaster risk reduction frameworks are insufficient for addressing HILP events.
• Adaptive, forward-looking strategies integrating scenario planning, stress testing, and resilience assessment are needed.
• A hazard-agnostic, interdisciplinary approach bridging risk and resilience thinking is crucial for developing robust disaster management systems.