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Author Spotlight: Simulation and Analysis of the Temperature Rise of Ring Main Unit Equipment
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A novel framework for expanding temperature intensity-duration-frequency curve utility.
Gregory E Tierney1, Megan S Mallard2, Tanya L Spero2
1State Climate Office of North Carolina, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands)
|May 6, 2026
Summary
Extreme temperatures present significant risks. This study expands temperature intensity-duration-frequency (TIDF) curve analysis to include cold events and near-extreme conditions, enhancing risk assessment for adaptation and mitigation planning.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Extreme temperatures, including heat waves and cold snaps, pose substantial threats to human health, infrastructure, and property.
- Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events complicate adaptation and mitigation strategies for various sectors.
- Current tools for assessing extreme temperature risks may not fully capture the complexities needed for robust hazard response planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present an expanded framework for temperature intensity-duration-frequency (TIDF) curve analysis.
- To extend the application of TIDF curves beyond heat waves to include extreme cold and near-extreme events.
- To provide uncertainty quantification and confidence intervals for a more robust risk assessment of extreme temperature events.
Main Methods:
- Development of an objective fitting algorithm for TIDF curve analysis.
- Inclusion of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic approaches to calculate confidence intervals.
- Application of the expanded TIDF framework to analyze recent extreme temperature events, such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave and Texas cold snap.
Main Results:
- The expanded TIDF framework successfully quantifies the risk associated with both hot and cold extreme temperature events.
- Confidence intervals provide context for the severity and unprecedented nature of historical extreme events.
- Analysis of confidence interval width reveals differences in uncertainty between hot and cold extremes.
Conclusions:
- The enhanced TIDF framework offers a flexible and robust tool for evaluating current and future extreme temperature risks.
- This approach can aid local governments, outdoor labor-dependent entities, and utilities in optimizing hazard response and planning.
- The demonstrated utility for recent extreme events highlights the broad applicability of this TIDF methodology across sectors.
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