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Assessing Flooding from Changes in Extreme Rainfall: Using the Design Rainfall Approach in Hydrologic Modeling.

Anna M Jalowska1, Daniel E Line2, Tanya L Spero1

  • 1Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.

Water
|May 6, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future extreme rainfall in Eastern North Carolina (ENC) could increase flooding by up to 57%. This study projects significant rises in peak discharge and water levels, threatening communities and infrastructure.

Keywords:
EPA dynamically downscaled ensemble (EDDE)HEC-HMSHEC-RASdesign rainfall approachextreme floodingextreme rainfallfuture floodinghydraulic modelinghydrologic modelingprecipitation intensity–duration–frequency estimates (PIDF)tropical cyclones

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Hydrology
  • Environmental engineering

Background:

  • Eastern North Carolina (ENC) faces frequent catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall, often linked to tropical cyclones.
  • Accurate quantification of future extreme events and flooding is crucial for effective stormwater management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To visualize potential future flooding extents in ENC using downscaled global climate model data.
  • To assess projected changes in extreme precipitation and their impact on riverine flooding under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate model rainfall data for two scenarios.
  • Computed future precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (PIDF) curves using DD data.
  • Applied PIDF curves to Hurricane Matthew rainfall to create "Matthew 2100" projections.
  • Simulated 2100 discharges and flood extents in the Neuse River Basin using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models.

Main Results:

  • Dynamically downscaled (DD) datasets demonstrated superior representation of historical extreme rainfall changes compared to statistically downscaled (SD) datasets.
  • Projected rainfall increases in ENC (up to 112%) surpass U.S. published values but remain within historical ranges.
  • Matthew 2100 simulations indicate potential increases of 23-69% in peak discharges, 0.4-3 m in water surface elevation, and 8-57% in flooded area.

Conclusions:

  • Projected increases in extreme precipitation and subsequent flooding pose significant threats to ENC's population, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and economy.
  • The novel approach using downscaled climate data provides critical insights for future flood risk assessment and adaptation strategies in coastal regions.