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Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Population Dynamics of the Biological Vector Aedes Aegypti
Alexandra Schwaiger1, Marco Schweitzer1, Werner Hackl1,2
1Division for Digital Health and Telemedicine, UMIT TIROL, Hall in Tirol, Austria.
Methods of Information in Medicine
|April 21, 2026
Summary
The invasive Aedes aegypti mosquito, a vector for diseases like Dengue and Zika, is unlikely to establish long-term populations in Austria due to climate change. Future projections show lower abundances despite warmer temperatures, with no winter survival.
Area of Science:
- Vector-borne disease ecology
- Climate change impact assessment
- Population dynamics modeling
Background:
- Aedes aegypti mosquitoes transmit arboviruses including Dengue, Zika, Chikungunya, and Yellow Fever.
- Understanding mosquito population dynamics is crucial for predicting and mitigating disease transmission.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a weather-dependent population dynamic simulation for Aedes aegypti in Austria.
- To assess the potential impact of short-term weather variability and climate change on mosquito populations.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based model was created, integrating temperature and precipitation effects on mosquito development, mortality, behavior, and reproduction.
- Model parameters were derived from published experimental data.
- Simulations used historical weather data and future climate projections (EURO-CORDEX ÖKS15 for 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
Main Results:
- Mosquito populations developed from late May to late September under all simulated scenarios.
- Observed 2024 weather conditions yielded the highest population sizes.
- Future climate projections indicated substantially lower mosquito abundances compared to 2024, despite rising average temperatures.
Conclusions:
- Increased temperature and precipitation variability, and the lack of urban heat-island effects in climate models, reduced projected mosquito populations.
- Winter survival was not observed in any scenario, suggesting long-term establishment is improbable in the Austrian region.
- The model serves as a basis for future spatially explicit virus transmission simulations and public health impact assessments related to climate change.
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