An Agent-Based Cellular Automaton Platform for Simulating Climate-Driven Mosquito Vector Spread in Alpine Regions

Climate change is expanding the suitable habitat range for mosquito species into previously uninhabitable alpine regions, necessitating tools for projecting vector establishment risk.

This study presents the development of an agent-based cellular automaton simulation platform for modeling the establishment and spread of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito populations in Tyrol, Austria.

We developed a Java-based simulation platform integrating high-resolution weather data from meteorological stations for the year range of 2019-2024 with climate projections under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios for the year range 2036-2040 and 2076-2080. The simulation uses a 100×100 cell grid (33×33 meters per cell) overlaying a region in Innsbruck, Austria, modeling species as agents with temperature-dependent development rates, stage-specific mortality, and dispersal patterns.

The platform enables comparison of vector population dynamics under current and projected climate conditions. Preliminary simulations demonstrate expected biological patterns, including seasonal population dynamics, species-specific cold tolerance differences, and spatial spread patterns.

The platform provides a scalable computational foundation for evidence-based public health adaptation strategies, enabling proactive risk assessment for vector-borne diseases in alpine regions.