Beyond MAT expansion: A mathematical modeling analysis of opioid use disorder intervention efficacy

The opioid epidemic continues to devastate communities across the United States. Treatment options for opioid use disorder (OUD) include Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT) and non-medication approaches, with MAT demonstrating superior outcomes including lower morbidity and fatal overdose rates, reduced HIV and HCV transmission, and decreased criminal activity. However, treatment access remains limited, and recent federal policies may worsen these barriers. This study employs a system of ordinary differential equations to model the relationship between these treatment modalities and OUD population dynamics. Beyond deriving closed-form equilibrium solutions, our analysis reveals that expanding MAT access alone, while beneficial for reducing OUD prevalence, is insufficient as a standalone policy intervention. Our findings indicate that effective OUD reduction requires a comprehensive approach: enhanced prevention programs, increased access to all treatment types, and improved treatment efficacy. The model also suggests that recent federal policies (e.g., Medicaid cuts) may have unintended negative consequences for population-level outcomes.