Estimating the Need for Pharmacist Manpower in 2032 Using Supply And Demand Analysis in Iran

Pharmacists hold a distinctive position within the healthcare system. The education and training of pharmacists through higher education incur both direct and indirect costs for society. Moreover, there exists a disparity between the supply and demand of human resources. Therefore, this study aims to estimate pharmacists' supply and demand in 2032 in Iran.

The descriptive-analytical research was conducted using the library method, which involved surveying pharmacists in Iran's pharmacies. A researcher-made checklist was used to estimate consultation time. Current and past statistics concerning the number of pharmacy students and graduates and the migration and mortality rates of pharmacists were obtained from the Medical Council, the Ministry of Health, and the National Organization for Education Assessment of Iran to estimate the supply of pharmacists up to 2032. The demand for pharmacists in 2032 was estimated by examining four scenarios within the realm of professional roles and activities of pharmacists. After gathering data from 160 pharmacies, the collected data were analyzed. For sensitivity analysis and increasing accuracy, the results of Iran's population in 2032 were calculated in three scenarios: decreasing, stable, and increasing, and were used in demand calculations.

The mean age of pharmacists was 37.57±10.74 years. The mean consultation time per patient was 114.21±58.81 seconds for prescription medicines and 90.51±45.23 seconds for over-the-counter medicines. The overall mean demand for pharmacists in 2032 was estimated to range between 26,888 (minimum) and 28,538 (maximum), while the total supply was projected to be 40,349. Therefore, it is predicted that by 2032, there will be an excess supply of between 11,811 and 13,461 pharmacists in Iran.

This study demonstrates that Iran will face an excess supply of pharmacists by 2032. This considerable surplus highlights an urgent need for strategic workforce planning to ensure that this growing pool of pharmacists is effectively integrated into the healthcare system. Policymakers should take these projections into account so that the education, training, and deployment of pharmacists are better aligned with the evolving healthcare needs of the population and can support more efficient use of pharmaceutical care services.