Identification of nutritional risk factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model in AIDS patients

To investigate the nutritional risk factors in AIDS patients and to develop a nomogram prediction model.

A total of 110 AIDS patients were enrolled between March 2025 and February 2026. Nutritional risk was screened using the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002). According to the scores, patients were divided into a well-nourished group (n = 81) and a nutritional-risk group (n = 29). Clinical data were collected. Variables were first screened by univariable analysis and then entered into a binary logistic regression model to identify nutritional risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and p values reported. Based on the multivariable results, a nomogram prediction model was constructed using R version 4.2.1, and its discriminatory ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that low body mass index (BMI) (OR = 0.654, 95% CI 0.488-0.877, p = 0.005), low CD4⁺ T-lymphocyte count (OR = 0.990, 95% CI 0.981-0.999, p = 0.031), and low serum albumin level (OR = 0.795, 95% CI 0.689-0.919, p = 0.002) were nutritional risk factors in AIDS patients. A nomogram model, constructed based on these variables, demonstrated good predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.959. At the optimal cutoff value of 0.7684, the sensitivity was 79.31% and the specificity was 97.53%.

Low BMI, low CD4⁺ T-lymphocyte count, and low serum albumin are nutritional risk factors in AIDS patients. The nomogram model based on these three indicators shows acceptable predictive accuracy and may have potential value for the early clinical identification of nutritional risk, although further validation is needed.