Estimates of rabies risk from vampire bats to livestock in Colombia

The goal of this study is to share with the community a spatial model of vampire-bat rabies (VBR) spillover risk developed with the government of Colombia to better inform current anti-rabies vaccination efforts. This model was designed to determine likely areas where vaccination should be prioritized across Colombia.

This spatial analysis designed by the Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario (ICA) sought to develop a predictive data-driven model, with information obtained from passive surveillance. Predictive identification of VBR hotspots of transmission risk within Colombia was made by incorporating VBR epidemiological data with environmental and landscape variables.

This study identified clustered patterns of the current geographic risk of VBR in Colombia, which were used to inform a national effort for rabies vaccination. Areas of VBR spillover risk were associated with distance to forested area, climate, and high cattle density in the Caribbean and Andean regions. At least 87% of Colombia could be identified as "at risk" to VBR spillover based on environmental conditions. That is, the majority of the country has conditions similar to sites were VBR spillover to livestock has occurred in the past. The model identified 88 municipalities as being at high risk for VBR spillover (spillover risk ≥0.70). More years of vaccination data are needed for an accurate evaluation of the rabies vaccination program in cattle in Colombia.

This study provides a refined VBR transmission-risk map, which reveals key geographic to be prioritized for vaccination and govertment effort for VBR control.