Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends

The increasing burden of dengue represents a growing global public health concern. Among the factors associated with rising dengue incidence, climate change, particularly increasing temperatures, has been frequently highlighted, alongside other environmental, biological, and social determinants. The emergence of dengue in previously non-endemic areas and its sustained increase in incidence have become increasingly common in recent decades.

The aim of this study was to describe national dengue case trends in Mexico from 1990 to 2023 and to assess their association with temperature over the same period using a descriptive, retrospective analysis of epidemiological surveillance and temperature data.

Epidemiological data on confirmed dengue cases and incidence were obtained from the Morbidity Yearbook of the General Directorate of Epidemiology (DGE) of the Mexican Ministry of Health. These data were used to construct epidemic curves and to analyze the geographic distribution of incidence using quartiles. Temperature data were derived from the national annual mean calculated from monthly reports issued by the National Water Commission (CONAGUA). Associations between temperature and dengue cases and incidence were explored over the study period.

Temporal analysis revealed a significant increase in both dengue cases and incidence in Mexico, with a positive association with temperature during the same period. Quartile-based geographic analysis showed that state-level classifications remained relatively stable across periods, with several states clustering within or tending toward the group considered endemic.

The results of this study show an increase in cases and incidence of dengue over time, as well as a positive association between cases/incidence of dengue in Mexico and the increase in the national average temperature during the study period; however, due to its descriptive and retrospective design, causal inference is not possible. Dengue transmission is inherently multifactorial, and the observed trends likely reflect the combined influence of climatic conditions, historical expansion of transmission cycles, vector establishment, and unmeasured socio-epidemiological factors. The absence of entomological indicators, additional climatic variables, and spatially or seasonally disaggregated analyses limits the ability to capture localized dynamics. Overall, temperature should be interpreted as a contributing factor within a complex system rather than as the sole driver of dengue trends, underscoring the need for integrated surveillance and control strategies in both endemic and non-endemic regions.