Performance Progression and Stability of Female Swimmers Across Different Swimming Techniques from Childhood to...

The aim of this study was to understand the female swimmers' annual performance progression and stability between 10 and 18 years across swimming distances and techniques. Data from female Portuguese Top-50 rankings in the short-course pool was extracted from an open access database (swimrankings.net). Performances were grouped by distances (50-, 100- and 200 m) and techniques (freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly), totalizing 12 events as performance metrics. A total of 343 swimmers and 3087 performances distributed by nine consecutive competitive seasons were retrospectively assessed. The mean and normative stability were computed for tracking performance trends, while reporting the year-to-year percentage improvement. The differences across distances and techniques were tested with a linear mixed-effects model using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The performance progression was characterized by marked improvements during the early ages (up to 13% yearly) and an emerging plateau around the 15-16 years. The stability patterns varied between events, with the backstroke technique (ICC = 0.13) demonstrating greater consistency of individual differences on developmental trajectories, whereas shorter races (i.e., 50 m; ICC = 0.15) tended to be more stable than 100 m or 200 m (ICC = 0.12). It can be concluded that female swimmers' performance stabilizes at the 15-16 years of age. Despite reduced differences, the backstroke technique and short distances seem to show a slightly more stable trend in progressing from childhood to adulthood.