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Updated: May 1, 2026
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Wind Tunnel Experiments to Study Chaparral Crown Fires
Published on: November 14, 2017
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Detecting deterministic chaos in a high-complexity fire model
Jenna Sjunneson McDanold1,2, Alex Jonko1, Kara Yedinak3
1Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|April 30, 2026
Summary
Wildfire behavior is highly chaotic and spatially correlated at the fireline
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Hydrodynamics
- Wildfire Dynamics
- Chaos Theory
Background:
- Wind sensitivity in marginal fire behavior is documented in field observations and complex models.
- Understanding fire-line dynamics is crucial for predicting wildfire spread and intensity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the chaotic nature of fire behavior at the fireline using advanced modeling.
- To analyze the spatial correlations of fire dynamics with wind and heat transfer.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the FIRETEC coupled atmospheric hydrodynamic-fire behavior model to simulate marginal fire scenarios.
- Generated 1D time series data for solid fuel temperature, convective heat transfer, horizontal wind, and vertical wind velocity.
- Applied the Chaos 0-1 test to identify chaotic signals and permutation entropy to assess stochasticity.
Main Results:
- The leading edge of the fireline exhibits highly chaotic and spatially correlated behavior.
- Time step length was found to influence determinism, necessitating stochasticity analysis.
- Spatial relationships were analyzed by including data from in front of and behind the fireline.
Conclusions:
- The fireline's leading edge demonstrates complex, chaotic dynamics influenced by wind and heat transfer.
- Challenges exist in simplifying these complex time series for existing 1D algorithms.
- Findings provide insights for future research in wildfire modeling and prediction.
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