Early ctDNA Stratifies Survival in Locally Advanced and Oligometastatic Lung Cancer Treated with Radiotherapy

Circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE) is a machine learning-derived composite metric of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) burden. We hypothesized that pre-treatment and early on-treatment ctFE could robustly risk-stratify patients with locally advanced (LA) and oligometastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiotherapy (RT).

In a prospective phase II clinical trial (NCT03916419), 26 patients with unresectable stage IIB to IIIC NSCLC received magnetic resonance (MR)-guided hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) followed by immunotherapy. Plasma ctDNA was profiled at baseline and mid-treatment (days 10-14) to derive ctFE and maximum variant allele frequency (Max VAF). A burden-based ctFE threshold derived from baseline samples was applied unchanged to mid-treatment samples and validated in two external cohorts: LA NSCLC treated with chemoRT (LA-RW; n = 94) and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT (OM-RW; n = 309).

Pre- and mid-treatment ctFE burden strongly stratified overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), outperforming Max VAF and ctFE detectability. The baseline ctFE was prognostic for OS (HR 5.93, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR 11.08, P < 0.001) and remained significant at mid-treatment (OS: HR 7.08; PFS: HR 12.06; both P < 0.001). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with OS separation (median OS 60.8 vs. 13.0 vs. 2.9 months; P < 0.001). ctFE remained associated with survival in both validation cohorts.

Early ctFE derived from a clinically available, tumor-naïve ctDNA assay enables noninvasive risk stratification in LA and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT, supporting its use as a practical biomarker for precision treatment adaptation.