Pathways to productivity: how functional ecosystem service flow determines crop yield in prairie landscape

Sustaining agricultural productivity while maintaining ecological integrity requires understanding the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services (ES). In the Canadian prairies-an intensively modified agricultural region-the degradation of natural habitats has impacted ES flows crucial for food security.

We investigated how landscape structure, acting as a structural proxy for potential internal ES flows, mediated by landscape structure, influence crop yield at the Soil Landscape of Canada (SLC) scale, an ecologically meaningful delineation based on natural features. Our primary objective was to determine the relative importance of landscape composition versus configuration in predicting agricultural productivity.

We conducted a biophysical assessment of key ES (pollination, carbon storage, habitat quality, soil erosion control) for the year 2020. We quantified landscape composition and configuration metrics at the SLC scale to represent the structural potential for ES flow pathways. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to analyze the non-linear effects of these variables on a composite crop yield index.

Our findings reveal that landscape configuration-notably connectivity (positive linear effect) and crop diversity (complex non-linear effect)-significantly predicts crop yield, often exerting greater influence than the mere amount of natural habitat. A secondary analysis showed that yield in specific crops like canola, which depends on pollination, responded positively to natural habitat extent. The models explained a substantial portion of yield variance (Adjusted R² ≈ 0.66-0.67).

Our analysis highlights that agricultural output is not solely a function of field-level inputs but is deeply embedded within, and responsive to the landscape matrix at SLC scale and the ecological processes it mediates. Strategically enhancing landscape cohesion and crop diversity may therefore offer greater yield benefits than focusing on increasing isolated natural habitat, guiding a shift towards spatially explicit, multifunctional landscape planning.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-026-02333-y.