Seasonal dynamics and transition patterns of land use land cover in Sher River Basin, Madhya Pradesh (India)

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are key indicators of environmental transformation, directly influencing hydrological balance, ecosystem services and sustainable land management. Sher River basin, an agro-ecological diverse sub-basin of the Upper Narmada River system in India, is the primary hydrological and socio-economic lifeline for local communities, but no comprehensive study on Sher River basin related to long term LULC dynamics could be tracked in the literature. To fulfil this research gap, long term LULC spatiotemporal change detection and transition patterns analysis with a dual-seasonal focus on the Rabi and Kharif cropping periods over a 23-year period (2001-2023) in Sher River basin are carried out. LULC maps are created using multi-sensor Landsat data (TM, ETM+ , OLI/TIRS) for 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2023 at an interval of 5 years for both Rabi and Kharif seasons using a supervised classification technique with the maximum likelihood classifier. Five LULC classes, namely, built-up, agricultural, forest, water body and barren land are delineated. All classified maps achieved overall accuracies exceeding 85% with kappa coefficients greater than 0.80. The agricultural land increased significantly in both seasons, more sharply during Rabi (5.86% to 10%) while built-up areas expanded more than fivefold (0.18% to 0.85%) reflecting rapid urbanization during 23 years. Barren land declined noticeably, transitioning mainly into agricultural and urban land uses. Forest cover, after an initial decline, showed recovery post 2016 with a modest increase in the later years due to afforestation initiatives. Water bodies remained relatively stable with minor seasonal variations. This study provides critical insights into seasonal land dynamics, highlighting clear seasonal contrasts in land use behavior between Rabi and Kharif periods. The findings emphasize the need for integrated land use planning to balance agricultural growth, urban expansion and ecological sustainability in sub-humid watersheds.