Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of carbon storage in arid ecosystems: Integrated analysis using InVEST and PLUS
Xiangyu Liu1, Fei Zhang2, Chi Yung Jim3
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Environmental Research
|May 3, 2026
Summary
Land use changes in Xinjiang significantly impact carbon storage, with natural factors like slope and vegetation being key drivers. Policies balancing conservation and development are crucial for enhancing carbon storage and achieving carbon neutrality.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecology
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a critical factor influencing the global carbon cycle.
- Understanding the drivers of carbon storage (CS) in arid regions like Xinjiang is vital for climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
- Previous research has inadequately addressed the spatiotemporal dynamics of LUCC and CS in Xinjiang.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess historical and future changes in carbon storage in Xinjiang using integrated modeling approaches.
- To identify the primary natural and socioeconomic drivers influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage in the region.
- To propose evidence-based policies for safeguarding and enhancing carbon storage in arid environments.
Main Methods:
- Integration of the InVEST and PLUS models for simulating land use/cover change and carbon storage dynamics.
- Application of Random Forest (RF) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to analyze the drivers of carbon storage.
- Scenario analysis to project future carbon storage under different development pathways.
Main Results:
- Carbon storage in Xinjiang exhibits distinct spatial patterns, with higher concentrations in mountainous areas and lower values in unused lands.
- Total carbon storage in Xinjiang increased by 87.5 million tons between 2000 and 2020.
- Natural factors (slope, NDVI) were dominant drivers of carbon storage heterogeneity, with significant contributions from socioeconomic factors (GDP, population density).
- All five simulated scenarios project increases in total carbon storage, with the Natural Development Scenario showing the largest increase (12.13×107 t).
Conclusions:
- Natural conditions and land use patterns are key determinants of carbon storage in Xinjiang's arid ecosystem.
- Effective land management strategies, balancing ecological protection with development, are essential for maximizing carbon storage.
- The findings provide critical insights for policy formulation to support China's carbon neutrality goals in arid regions.
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