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How accurate should a precision medical test be to meet cost-effectiveness
Ermo Chen1,2, Xinyue Zeng3,4, Huajie Jin5
1Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University, No.5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100871, People's Republic of China. chenermo@pku.edu.cn.
Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation : C/E
|May 7, 2026
Summary
This study introduces a cost-effectiveness model for precision medical tests. It proposes accuracy thresholds ensuring optimal treatment and greater population benefit compared to no testing.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Medical Decision Making
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Precision medical tests are vital for personalized treatment and efficient resource allocation.
- Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of these tests is crucial for healthcare systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a quantitative model assessing the relationship between precision test accuracy and cost-effectiveness.
- To establish theoretical lower bounds for test accuracy required for cost-effectiveness.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a quantitative model to analyze test accuracy and cost-effectiveness.
- Proposal of two theoretical lower bounds: local efficiency (optimal intervention per class) and global efficiency (net monetary benefit vs. no testing).
- Illustration using a binary test case (sensitivity, specificity) and support via numerical simulations.
Main Results:
- Accuracy requirements for cost-effectiveness are contingent on disease prevalence, treatment benefits, and test expenses.
- The proposed lower bounds provide a framework for evaluating testing strategies.
- Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical findings on accuracy thresholds.
Conclusions:
- The developed model and accuracy bounds can guide the selection and evaluation of precision medical tests.
- These findings may serve as a preliminary screening tool for cost-effective testing strategies.
- Optimizing test accuracy is key to maximizing both individual patient outcomes and population-level economic benefits.
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