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Forecasting preterm birth in Kazakhstan through 2050: a cohort-component demographic modeling study
Saule Issenova1, Gulmira Altynbayeva2, Abay Kussainov2
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology with a Course in Clinical Genetics, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Global Health Action
|May 8, 2026
Summary
Preterm birth in Kazakhstan is projected to remain a significant public health issue through 2050. Despite stabilization, the annual number of preterm births is expected to increase, necessitating long-term maternal and neonatal care planning.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Preterm birth presents a major global health challenge.
- Kazakhstan faces this challenge amidst demographic transition.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate long-term trends in preterm birth in Kazakhstan until 2050.
- Utilize a cohort-component demographic modeling approach for projections.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed national demographic and birth data from 2009-2023.
- Employed a cohort-component model to project the female population (15-49 years).
- Estimated future preterm births under optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios.
Main Results:
- Annual preterm births ranged from 21,000-27,000 (2013-2023), with a rising proportion post-2020.
- Baseline projections indicate stabilization at 30,000-33,000 cases annually by 2050.
- Model validation showed high accuracy with minimal error.
Conclusions:
- Preterm birth will persist as a public health burden in Kazakhstan through 2050.
- Projected trends align with demographic shifts in reproductive-age women.
- Highlights the need for sustained maternal and neonatal health service planning.
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