Risk factors for bleeding after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ERCP is associated with adverse events, including bleeding, which occurs in up to 1.3% of cases. This meta-analysis aims to identify and quantify risk factors associated with post-ERCP bleeding.

A comprehensive literature search of electronic databases was conducted from inception to January 10, 2025. Studies were eligible if they used multivariate analysis to identify predictors of post-ERCP bleeding. Risk factors reported in at least 2 studies were pooled using a random-effects model to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. A further subgroup analysis was performed, including risk factors for postsphincterotomy bleeding and postendoscopic papillectomy bleeding.

Twenty-seven studies (4 prospective and 23 retrospective studies) comprising 149,870 patients were included, of whom 1865 experienced post-ERCP bleeding. Twenty potential risk factors were analyzed. The meta-analysis identified several factors significantly associated with increased odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis, including male gender (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.46), anticoagulation therapy (OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.66-4.56), cirrhosis (OR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.76-3.65), hemodialysis (OR, 5.82; 95% CI, 3.32-10.18), coagulopathy (OR, 11.01; 95% CI, 2.50-48.40), endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.69-6.01), precut sphincterotomy (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.52-3.30), and intraoperative bleeding (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.80-3.66). Several factors in the pooled adjusted analysis were not found to be significantly associated with higher odds of post-ERCP bleeding, including high body mass index (BMI), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use, antiplatelet therapy, thrombocytopenia, common bile duct stones, cholangitis, endoscopic papillary balloon dilatation, and covered self-expandable metal stent insertion.

This meta-analysis identified that the anticoagulation therapy, cirrhosis, hemodialysis, coagulation disorder, EST, precut sphincterotomy, and male gender are associated with increased odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis. Conversely, age, high BMI, cholangitis, choledocholithiasis, pancreatic duct stones, needle-knife sphincterotomy, NSAID use, and antiplatelet therapy were not significantly associated with higher odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis. Incorporating our results into a prediction model may assist in identifying patients at increased risk, optimizing informed consent, and guiding prevention and management strategies for post-ERCP bleeding.