Economic shocks and compliance with COVID-19 public health orders

Economic shocks have been shown to affect social and political outcomes. Here, I show that U.S. counties that faced greater economic shocks within the last 30 years were less likely to comply with the advice/orders of public health officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyzing county-level vaccination rates and then compliance rates with stay-at-home orders, I show that compliance with these initiatives was lower in counties that had experienced trade exposure to China, excess unemployment from the Great Recession, and a greater risk of job automation. These shocks are comparable in importance to factors such as income, age, and education.