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Updated: May 13, 2026
13:27
Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
Vegetation responses to air dryness amplify future land surface warming
Julia K Green1, Trevor F Keenan2,3, Xu Lian4
1Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. juliakgreen@arizona.edu.
Nature Communications
|May 11, 2026
Summary
Plant canopy temperatures will rise significantly more than air temperatures this century, impacting vegetation growth. Current climate models underestimate this effect, potentially leading to inaccurate predictions of the land carbon sink.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Plant Physiology
Background:
- Temperature is a primary driver of vegetation photosynthesis and transpiration.
- Most studies use air temperature, not canopy temperature, to assess climate impacts on plants.
- Canopy temperature directly influences ecosystem functions and vegetation-climate interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the projected difference between canopy and air temperature increases over the 21st century.
- To evaluate the accuracy of Earth System Models (ESMs) in capturing these temperature changes.
- To understand the implications of these temperature differences for vegetation and the land carbon sink.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a dual emergent constraint approach combining ESM simulations and satellite observations.
- Analyzed projected changes in canopy and air temperatures throughout the 21st century.
- Identified regions where the difference between canopy and air temperature is projected to increase most significantly.
Main Results:
- Canopy temperature is projected to increase substantially more than air temperature (~0.11°C greater difference).
- The median of ESM ensembles fails to capture these amplified canopy warming trends in most vegetated areas.
- The largest increases in canopy-air temperature difference are predicted in regions with increasing moisture stress and vapor pressure deficit.
Conclusions:
- Future warming will likely impose greater constraints on plant function than currently estimated.
- Using only air temperature leads to underestimation of temperature effects on photosynthesis, growth, and the land carbon sink.
- Accurate representation of canopy temperature in ESMs is crucial for improving projections of ecosystem responses to climate change.
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