LTiT: A Deep Learning Model for Subway Section Passenger Flow Prediction Based on LSTM-TSSA-iTransformer

As a vital part of urban public transportation system, subway passenger flow prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion, improving transportation infrastructure, and optimizing travel experience. Existing subway passenger flow prediction mainly focuses on short-term predictions of inbound/outbound passenger flow and origin-destination (O-D) demand. Subway section passenger flow prediction can provide a more direct reflection of passenger fluctuations across different line segments, and offer robust support for management and resource allocation. We propose a subway section passenger flow generation model and a prediction method based on LTiT (LSTM-TSSA-iTransformer). This model is based on the overall architecture of the iTransformer encoder, and an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network is employed to capture the temporal characteristics of subway section passenger flow. This is combined with the TSSA (Token Statistics Self-Attention) to adaptively weight the information at key time points. Efficient performance of the model was evaluated by comparing its predictions with other models, including SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive integrated moving average), BP neural networks, LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms traditional baseline models in evaluation metrics such as R², MAE, MSE, and MAPE. Finally, we further investigate the selection of input window length and prediction step size, and perform robustness analysis under different noise conditions.