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Risk of Measles Outbreak in Texas School Districts: A Modeling Study
Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah1,2, Sina Mokhtar2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd, TX 77843 USA.
Summary
Texas K-12 public schools face measles outbreak risks. West Texas districts are most vulnerable, while large metropolitan areas may see the highest case numbers between 2025 and 2030.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Measles transmission in school settings poses a significant public health challenge.
- Understanding geographic and demographic variations in outbreak risk is crucial for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a measles transmission model for K-12 public schools in Texas.
- To identify specific regions and school districts at higher risk for measles outbreaks.
- To estimate the potential number of cases in different areas.
Main Methods:
- Development of a school-district-level measles transmission model.
- Analysis of transmission dynamics within the K-12 public school system in Texas.
- Spatio-temporal risk assessment for measles outbreaks.
Main Results:
- Districts in West Texas are identified as having the highest risk for measles outbreaks between 2025 and 2030.
- Large metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to experience the largest number of measles cases during an outbreak.
- The model provides a granular, school-district-level risk assessment.
Conclusions:
- Targeted surveillance and intervention strategies are needed for West Texas school districts.
- Public health preparedness in large metropolitan areas should account for potentially high case volumes.
- The developed model serves as a valuable tool for predicting and managing measles outbreaks in educational settings.
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