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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 27, 2026

Development of Multiplex Real-Time RT-qPCR Assays for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A/B, and MERS-CoV

Development of Multiplex Real-Time RT-qPCR Assays for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A/B, and MERS-CoV

Published on: November 10, 2023

Risk and Spatial Spread of a Measles Outbreak in Texas.

Martial Loth Ndeffo-Mbah^1,2, Sina Mokhtar³, Abhishek Pandey⁴

¹Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.

|June 26, 2026

Summary

A measles outbreak in Texas could spread rapidly, especially from areas with low vaccination rates. Modeling shows outbreaks can reach major cities, highlighting the need for targeted vaccination strategies.

Keywords:

MMR vaccination Texas epidemic modeling measles outbreak spatial spread

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Last Updated: Jun 27, 2026

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Published on: June 23, 2022

Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Public Health

Background:

A measles outbreak occurred in Gaines County, Texas, in January 2025, with limited investigation into its geographic spread.
Measles transmission is influenced by vaccination coverage and population mobility.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and utilize a measles transmission model to understand the geographic spread of outbreaks in Texas.
To assess the impact of vaccination coverage and mobility on measles transmission.
To identify high-risk counties and inform preemptive vaccination strategies.

Main Methods:

Developed a measles transmission model using MMR vaccination data (2020-2024) and human mobility data in Texas.
Conducted sensitivity analyses on model parameters like R0 and vaccination coverage.
Compared model predictions with the 2025 measles outbreak data.
Simulated outbreak scenarios originating in low-vaccination counties.

Main Results:

An outbreak in Gaines County has an 80% probability of causing outbreaks in eight neighboring West Texas counties.
Spatial spread is highly sensitive to the basic reproduction number (R0) and population-level MMR vaccination coverage.
Outbreaks in low-vaccination counties (Polk, Montague, Limestone) may spread to Houston and Dallas.

Conclusions:

Measles poses a significant risk for statewide outbreaks in Texas.
The developed modeling framework is valuable for county-level risk assessment.
Preemptive vaccination strategies are crucial for mitigating measles spread.