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More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage
Corey S Lesk1,2,3, Justin S Mankin4,5,6
1Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA. lesk.corey@uqam.ca.
Nature
|May 13, 2026
Summary
Concentrated precipitation events globally decrease land water availability, similar to increased total precipitation. This drying effect impacts 27% of the global population under future warming scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Terrestrial water availability is crucial for human and ecosystem health.
- The impact of daily precipitation concentration on land water balance is not well understood.
- Changes in precipitation patterns, beyond average amounts, are critical for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how daily-scale precipitation concentration affects hydrologic partitioning and land water balance.
- To quantify the drying effect of increased precipitation concentration globally.
- To project the impact of warming-driven precipitation concentration on terrestrial water storage.
Main Methods:
- Observational analysis of precipitation concentration and land water availability.
- Utilizing simple and complex land-surface models to simulate the observed effects.
- Conducting idealized simulations to understand the mechanisms driving the results.
Main Results:
- Increased precipitation concentration significantly decreases land water availability globally.
- This drying effect is as strong as the wetting effect of increased total precipitation.
- Warming-driven precipitation concentration could lead to abnormally dry conditions for 27% of the global population.
Conclusions:
- The temporal distribution of precipitation is a key determinant of the land water balance.
- Land water availability is highly sensitive to precipitation concentration, not just total amount.
- Future water availability assessments must consider precipitation patterns for accurate projections.
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