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Mitigating Hidden Climate Change Impacts of Timber Cities Critically Depends on Proactive Forest and Waste Management
Alperen Yayla1, Augustin Danneaux1,2, Estelle Schurer1,3
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, Skempton Building, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
Environmental Science & Technology
|May 14, 2026
Summary
Timber buildings offer lower global temperature increases than concrete buildings by 2100. However, sustainable forest management and recycling are crucial to prevent future warming from timber construction.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Sustainable Architecture
Background:
- Decarbonization of buildings involves low-carbon cement and engineered timber.
- Long-term impacts of urbanization, material end-of-life, and carbon dynamics on building climate effects are unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- Assess climate change impacts of dynamic factors on future urban buildings (2025-2100).
- Compare climate impacts of timber versus reinforced concrete cities under various scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) across 14 pathways.
- Analyzed short-term and long-term scenarios for urban growth and material management.
Main Results:
- Timber cities showed up to 0.023 K lower global temperature increase by 2100 compared to concrete cities.
- Post-2100, timber cities may exceed concrete cities' impact with poor forest regrowth, landfill gas release, or incineration.
- Timber recycling coupled with maintaining forest carbon sinks is the most climate-friendly option.
Conclusions:
- Promote rapid timber building implementation for current urbanization.
- Develop proactive land, forest, and waste policies to mitigate future warming from timber.
- Adopt dynamic LCA and absolute global warming potential for climate policymaking in the built environment.
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