Prioritizing radiotherapy infrastructure in depopulating societies: a 2050 blueprint from Akita, Japan

In super-aged and depopulating societies, repeated travel requirements for radiotherapy (RT) can amplify geographic inequities in access to advanced techniques. The aim of this study was to determine optimal placement of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT)-capable facilities in Akita Prefecture-a leading-edge case of Japan's demographic transition-using p-median optimization under population projections through 2050. Using 1-km mesh population data for 2020 and official projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, we calculated one-way automobile travel times from each mesh centroid to RT facilities with the Open Source Routing Machine based on OpenStreetMap road data. A 60-min travel-time threshold defined access coverage. IMRT-capable facilities were identified from official insurance-designation lists. Optimal placement was determined using a population-weighted p-median model, with the number of facilities prespecified as one per 200 000 population. In 2020, 10 external-beam RT facilities provided near-universal 60-min coverage (99.99%; mean 12.8 min), whereas the single IMRT-capable facility covered only 70.3% (uncovered 285 273; mean 42.5 min). Optimized placement with five IMRT-capable facilities increased coverage to 99.99% (uncovered 89) and reduced mean travel time to 14.2 min. Under population projections, optimized placement maintained >99% coverage through 2050 with three facilities, and three core locations were consistently selected across all time horizons. These temporally stable core locations can serve as priority targets for long-term IMRT infrastructure investment in aging and depopulating regions.