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Navigating Ambition and Equity: Systemic Codependency in China's Carbon Neutrality Pathways.
Songmin Yu1,2, Fu Zhao3, Lingyu Yang4
1E3Modelling, Panormou 70, 11523 Athens, Greece.
Environmental Science & Technology
|May 15, 2026
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Energy Systems Analysis
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Decarbonization Strategies
Background:
- Global climate targets require national decarbonization roadmaps, presenting significant uncertainty.
- China's commitment to carbon neutrality necessitates detailed, actionable transition plans.
Purpose of the Study:
- To navigate decarbonization uncertainties for China using a high-resolution energy system model.
- To identify robust investment strategies and critical path dependencies for China's carbon neutrality goals.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the MESSAGEix framework for a national-scale energy system model of China.
- Incorporated provincial-level resolution and high-granularity intra-annual power system dynamics (48 time slices).
- Analyzed scenarios across 1.5, 1.6, and 2.0 °C temperature targets and six allocation principles.
Main Results:
- Wind and solar power are identified as consistent "no-regret" pillars for decarbonization.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is essential for abating emissions in heavy industry.
- Hydrogen sourcing varies with budget stringency, and the power sector must become a net carbon sink under stringent constraints.
Conclusions:
- A critical codependency exists between power sector transformation and heavy industry decarbonization.
- The 1.6 °C pathway under the Grandfathering principle offers a pragmatic blueprint aligned with China's 2060 neutrality pledge.
- Provincial-level analysis distinguishes "no-regret" investments from high-stakes decisions, guiding China's carbon neutrality journey.
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