Meta-Analysis Obesity Correlates with Severity and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: An Updated Meta-Analysis

The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is steadily increasing worldwide. Overweight and obesity are recognized epidemiological risk factors for more severe disease courses and higher mortality, while the direct pathomechanism is only speculated on. The aim was to reassess the association between obesity and severity and mortality of AP as approximately half of the patients have not been included in the latest meta-analysis, and furthermore, to explore associations between underlying characteristics of obesity aiming to understand the pathophysiological mode of action.

A systematic search was performed for studies published up to April 2025. Eligible studies included adult AP patients with BMI-based definitions of overweight and obesity and reported outcomes on severity or mortality. Odds ratios (ORs) and mean differences (MDs) were pooled using a random-effects model.

Twenty-eight studies comprising 18,062 patients met inclusion criteria, roughly 50% of patients not being included in previous analyses. The mean BMI was significantly higher in severe versus mild AP (MD = 1.77 kg/m2; 95% CI: 1.11-2.42). Overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) were associated with increased risk of severe disease (OR = 3.24; 95% CI: 2.07-4.42; OR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.55-2.81). Mortality risk was likewise elevated for BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (OR = 2.80; 95% CI: 1.18-4.42) and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (OR = 5.30; 95% CI: 1.30-9.30). Heterogeneity of studies was too high to establish pathophysiological modes of action with respect to the inflammatory reaction.

This analysis represents the largest, most extensive synthesis to date establishing the impact of obesity on outcome in AP, but failed to meta-analytically identify independent drivers of severity as a starting point for further mechanistic studies.