[STIRPAT-based Prediction and Multi-scenario Optimization of Carbon Emissions in Yunnan]

As one of China's provinces with the highest proportion of clean energy， Yunnan exhibits distinctive regional characteristics in its carbon emission driving mechanisms and decarbonization pathways. To explore implementation paths for achieving the "Dual Carbon" goals， this study establishes a carbon emission forecasting system based on an extended STIRPAT model， integrating multidimensional factors including population， economy， energy， industry， and technology. Six development scenarios were simulated to project carbon emission trajectories from 2023 to 2035. Key findings include： ① Among driving factors， the proportion of secondary industry output demonstrated the most significant promoting effect on emissions （the elasticity coefficient was 0.348）， followed by coal consumption share and degree of prosperity. Conversely， increasing the proportion of primary electricity showed notable inhibitory impacts （the elasticity coefficient was -0.297）. ② Scenario simulations revealed that the Green Development Scenario， through energy structure decarbonization and industrial low-carbon transition， could reduce 2035 emissions by 20.1% compared to the baseline year. The Low-growth Conservation Scenario， enhanced by technological empowerment and accelerated industrial structural transformation， further decreased emissions to 33.369 1 million tons， achieving a 31.5% reduction. ③ Achieving carbon peaking in Yunnan requires prioritizing clean energy restructuring and industrial decarbonization. Strategic recommendations emphasize leveraging hydropower and wind energy advantages to upgrade energy-intensive industries， while enhancing digital twin technology applications and ecological carbon sequestration capacity to establish a sustainable development paradigm under the "Dual Carbon" framework.