[Prediction and Demonstration of Carbon Peak in Mountain Cities Based on the STIRPAT Model: A Case Study of Chongqing...

Based on the 2001-2022 panel data of Chongqing Municipality， we employed the extended STIRPAT （population-affluence-technology-impact） model， incorporating six driving variables. The model parameters were robustly estimated using ridge regression， combining the CEADs carbon emission accounting data and the Chongqing Statistical Yearbook. The six driving variables were categorized as follows： population size， GDP per capita， and urbanization rate （socioeconomic factors） and industrial structure coefficient， energy intensity per unit of GDP， and proportion of coal consumption （technological and structural factors）. Relying on the 14th Five-Year Plan and regional development needs， we designed three growth rates （low， medium， and high） for each driver and combined them into seven scenarios， using a full factorial design， to predict the evolution of CO₂ emission trajectories in Chongqing from 2023 to 2050. The results showed that population size elasticity （0.956， influence degree， same as below）， industrial structure coefficient （0.568）， and proportion of coal consumption （-0.483） exerted the most significant influence on carbon emissions， while the roles of GDP per capita （0.082） and energy intensity （-0.156） were comparatively weaker. Under the baseline （medium-speed） scenario， carbon emissions continued to rise and peak at 208.009×10⁶ t （in terms of CO₂， same as below） in 2037. Under the "low-speed growth+efficient carbon reduction" scenario， the peak could achieve earlier peaking in 2035， and the peak was reduced to 202.040×10⁶ t， which was two years earlier than in the baseline scenario， a reduction of 2.9%. The scenario analysis indicated that suppressing excessive population and urbanization growth， while simultaneously accelerating improvements in energy consumption efficiency and optimizing industrial structure， can significantly advance and reduce the peak carbon level. For mountainous， complex industrial cities， a low-carbon development path combining structural reform and technological progress can provide a practical policy reference for realizing the regional peak carbon target.