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[Spatiotemporal Synergistic Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Industrial Structure
1School of Geographical Sciences, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China.
Abstract:
This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and natural-socioeconomic interactive effects between industrial structure upgrading and ecological environment coupling coordination in China, utilizing provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021. A comprehensive methodology was employed, including the coupling coordination degree model, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and geographical detector analysis. Key findings revealed that: ① The coupling coordination degree between industrial structure upgrading and ecological environment exhibited an upward trend nationwide during the study period yet remained predominantly at a primary coordination stage. Significant regional disparities persisted, with eastern China demonstrating markedly higher coordination levels than in other regions. ② Spatial patterns followed a distinct stepped distribution of "east-high vs. west-low," accompanied by an evolutionary trajectory of "eastern leadership and western catch-up." ③ Inter-regional differences constituted the primary source of overall coordination disparity, particularly highlighting development gaps between eastern China and western/northeastern regions as core contradictions. ④ Geographical detector analysis identified research and development (R&D) intensity and openness level as dominant socioeconomic drivers, while vegetation coverage and annual precipitation emerged as critical natural constraints. Notably, the interaction between annual precipitation and R&D intensity exerted decisive influence on coupling coordination. This research elucidates the spatiotemporal co-evolution mechanisms and driving factors between industrial transformation and ecological sustainability, providing scientific support for formulating regionally differentiated strategies to promote green industrial transition in China.
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