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Updated: May 22, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
[Dynamic Changes in the Production-living-ecological Space and Ecosystem Service Responses Based on Multi-scenario
Zhen-Wei Wang1, Yi-Lei Wang1, Xiao-Chun Wang1
1School of Public Administration, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China.
Abstract:
Urbanization and industrialization development have triggered significant changes in land use and land cover. However, land ecological service value variations and ecological responses under different development scenarios exhibit disparities, thereby exerting distinct impacts on high-quality regional economic development and ecological conservation. Based on remote sensing data of land use in Hubei Province from 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study employed the PLUS model and ecosystem service value (ESV) estimation method to explore differences in ESV and ecological responses caused by land use changes under three scenarios (natural development, economic growth, and ecological protection) from 2020 to 2040 within the production-living-ecological space (PLES) framework. The results indicate that: ① From 2000 to 2020, production space in Hubei Province showed an initial decline followed by growth, while both living and ecological spaces exhibited an initial increase followed by a decrease. ② From 2020 to 2040, under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, living and ecological spaces demonstrated expansion trends. Under the economic growth scenario, production and living spaces increased significantly. Ecological protection scenarios witnessed the largest reduction in production space (43 786.08 hm2), whereas economic growth scenarios led to the greatest shrinkage of ecological space (24 164.1 hm2). ③ Land use changes simultaneously triggered ecological improvement and degradation, with divergent environmental responses. The expansion of forestland contributed dominantly to ecological improvement, while encroachment of water bodies by production-living spaces constituted the primary driver of ecological deterioration. ④ Compared with that in 2020, ESV in Hubei Province increased across all scenarios by 2040. The ecological protection scenario yielded the highest ESV increment (38.43×108 Yuan), followed by the natural development (24.6×108 Yuan) and economic growth scenarios (19.02 ×108 Yuan). Scenario comparisons reveal that ecological protection strategies enhance land use efficiency and foster coordinated regional ecological-economic development.
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