Study on the driving mechanisms of land use change on water yield and carbon storage based on the...

Under the dual pressures of global climate change and intensive human activities, the degradation of ecosystem services has become a critical challenge for regional sustainable development. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of water yield and carbon storage in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. By integrating the land use transfer matrix, InVEST, PLUS, GeoDetector, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we assessed the impacts of land use change on water yield and carbon storage from 1985 to 2023. The results indicate that cropland area declined by approximately 15%, while construction land expanded rapidly during the study period, intensifying land use conflicts. Water yield exhibited a pronounced fluctuation-recovery pattern, with a sharp decline of nearly 70% in the early stage followed by a gradual recovery in recent years, reflecting the combined influence of climate variability and human activities. In contrast, carbon storage showed a steady increasing trend associated with vegetation restoration, rising by about 2% over the study period. Driving factor analysis revealed that interactions between vegetation conditions (NDVI) and human activity indicators played a dominant role in shaping ecosystem service dynamics (q > 0.85). A clear trade-off relationship was observed between water yield and carbon storage, indicating the tension between vegetation restoration and regional water availability. Based on these results, this study recommends implementing zonal management strategies, strengthening vegetation restoration in ecologically fragile areas, and optimizing land use structures in urban expansion zones to promote the coordinated enhancement of ecosystem services, thereby ensuring ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.