Extreme low temperature is the key meteorological limiting factor for winter wheat yield in Shihezi

In the background of global climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, leading to various agricultural meteorological disasters worldwide. However, the key meteorological limiting factor for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Shihezi (Xingjiang, China) remains unclear. Clarifying this factor is a core prerequisite for ensuring regional food security.

In this study, standard anomaly (s) was used to define extreme climate conditions (extreme: ≤ -2.0 s or ≥ 2.0 s; moderate: -2.0 s ~ 2.0 s).

Based on long-term series (1980- 2024) winter wheat yield data and daily meteorological datasets (precipitation, sunshine hours, average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average wind speed) from the Wulanwusu Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station, we quantified the impact of each meteorological factor on yield using the yield loss ratio (YLR). The results showed that extreme low temperature (average minimum temperature ≤ -2 s) is the key limiting meteorological factor for winter wheat yield in Shihezi, causing a yield reduction of 43.58%, significantly higher than the impacts of extreme wet (-12.60%) and extreme high temperature (-13.54%). Moreover, extreme low temperature mainly exacerbates yield loss by inhibiting 1000-grain weight during the tillering stages (r=-0.302).

This study identified the core meteorological limiting factors and their mechanisms for winter wheat yield in Shihezi, providing a scientific basis for optimizing stress-resistant and stablecultivation techniques and formulating climate-adaptive management strategies for regional winter wheat production.