A Review of Epidemiological Modeling Studies on Monkeypox

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• The 2022-2025 global mpox (monkeypox) outbreak prompted a WHO public health emergency.
• Understanding mpox transmission dynamics is crucial for effective prevention and control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To elucidate mpox transmission dynamics using mathematical modeling through a comprehensive literature review.
• To analyze existing mpox modeling research, focusing on the SIR framework and the 2022 outbreak.

Main Methods:

• Comprehensive literature review of mathematical modeling studies on mpox transmission.
• Analysis of existing research, primarily SIR-based models, focusing on the 2022 global outbreak.

Main Results:

• Mpox virulence varies significantly by subtype and clade (Ib>Ia>IIa>IIb).
• Clade II shows higher interpersonal transmission capacity than Clade I, with geographical disparities (Americas > Europe/Oceania > Asia).
• Africa shows consistently low but non-declining transmission. Significant co-infections with HIV and syphilis were confirmed, with synergistic interactions.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical modeling provides crucial evidence for mpox regulation, risk assessment, and intervention evaluation.
• Identifying high-risk populations, subtypes, and geographic areas enhances public health response precision.
• This study offers a comprehensive reference for understanding mpox transmission and informing public health strategies.