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Updated: May 26, 2026

Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes

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Assessment of Cross-Border Monkeypox Importation Risk: A Modeling Study - Worldwide, 2022-2025.

Qiangru Huang¹, Xiaoli Wang^2,3, Xuefeng Huang⁴

¹School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

China CDC Weekly

|May 25, 2026

Summary

A new tool quantifies monkeypox (mpox) importation risk by integrating epidemic data and travel volume. This early-warning system provides timely alerts, enabling targeted public health interventions for cross-border mpox transmission.

Keywords:

Cross-border transmission Risk assessment mpox

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Public Health
Mathematical Modeling

Background:

Monkeypox (mpox) poses a significant global health threat.
Effective early-warning systems are crucial for managing cross-border transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a practical, rapid early-warning tool for quantifying country-level mpox importation risk.
To identify potential sources of cross-border mpox transmission.

Main Methods:

Utilized weekly confirmed mpox case data and international passenger volume (January 2022-November 2025).
Developed an importation risk index (RI) incorporating epidemic intensity, passenger flows, and public health capacity.
Employed a simplified ordinary differential equation framework to estimate regional RI parameters.

Main Results:

The RI showed strong lagged correlations with subsequent reported mpox cases.
Real-time RI provided earlier alerts in 93.3% of countries, with a mean lead time of 4.23 weeks.
Identified varying dominant sources of importation risk, supporting tailored control strategies.

Conclusions:

The cross-border risk assessment model offers an actionable framework for early warning and source attribution.
Supports targeted surveillance and proactive allocation of public health resources.
Highlights the importance of global health collaboration and timely data sharing for mpox control.