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Related Experiment Videos

Risk Assessment Method for Global Monkeypox Importation into China - May 2022-September 2025.

Shihui Shan1, Yan Zhang1, Yanhe Wang2

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.

China CDC Weekly
|May 25, 2026
PubMed
Summary

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This summary is machine-generated.

A new framework assesses infectious disease importation risk, showing Clade II monkeypox (mpox) risk correlates with national case counts. This tool aids targeted prevention at ports of entry.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Global Health Security
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Globalization increases cross-border infectious disease transmission risks.
  • Targeted prevention at ports of entry requires tools capturing regional importation risk heterogeneity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a scientific, dynamic, and practical risk assessment framework for infectious disease importation.
  • To apply this framework to monkeypox (mpox) using clade-specific and aggregated scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Devised an extensible importation risk assessment framework using Delphi consultation and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
  • Applied the framework to global mpox data (May 2022-September 2025) under Clade I, Clade II, and aggregated scenarios.
  • Analyzed temporal and spatial risk distributions and correlations with reported cases.
Keywords:
Importation riskRisk Assessmentmpox

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • Framework showed significant disparities in Clade I (Central Africa) vs. Clade II (US, Southeast Asia) importation risks.
  • Provincial risks followed an "east-high, west-low" pattern, with Shandong high for Clade I and Fujian for Clade II.
  • Clade II risk index positively correlated with national mpox cases (ρ=0.50, P<0.05), unlike the aggregated index (ρ=0.32, P=0.12).

Conclusions:

  • The framework effectively captures shifts in mpox importation sources and regional risk heterogeneity.
  • Provides a risk-driven decision-support tool for prioritizing port-of-entry screening and surveillance.
  • Facilitates targeted prevention and control measures for infectious diseases in a globalized world.