Risk-based sensitivity analysis of urban gas infrastructure in new district planning

Area of Science:

• Urban planning
• Infrastructure engineering
• Risk management

Background:

• Urban gas infrastructure is vital for public safety but faces growing vulnerabilities with network expansion.
• Rapid urban development necessitates proactive strategies for ensuring the resilience of critical infrastructure.
• Existing resilience strategies often prioritize emergency response over foundational design.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a system dynamics framework for identifying key leverage points to improve urban gas infrastructure resilience in new districts.
• To analyze risk factors and their impact on the resilience of gas networks in developing urban areas.
• To inform planning and design decisions for more robust urban gas systems.

Main Methods:

• A system dynamics-based framework was developed to model gas infrastructure resilience.
• Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) weighting was integrated with system dynamics modeling.
• A case study in a new urban district in China utilized a three-tier indicator system with 32 risk factors.

Main Results:

• System's inherent resilience was identified as the most significant contributor to overall resilience.
• The proportion of high-pressure pipelines showed the highest sensitivity in the model.
• Population-infrastructure spatial coupling and building seismic resistance were also identified as sensitive indicators.

Conclusions:

• Planning-phase interventions targeting high-sensitivity indicators are the most efficient way to enhance urban gas infrastructure resilience.
• Foundational design considerations, such as pipeline type and seismic resistance, should be prioritized over emergency response.
• The study provides a data-driven approach to optimize resilience strategies for new urban gas infrastructure.