Landscape determinants of human-elephant conflict in Assam, India: insights from two decades of spatial analysis

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) presents an escalating conservation and socio-economic challenge across Assam, India, where a dense human population overlaps with critical elephant habitats. This study investigates human mortality patterns linked to HEC over 23 years (2000-2023), analysing 1,806 incidents, including 1,468 human fatalities and 337 human injuries. The data for this study were collected from 21 forest divisions of Assam and included detailed information (with gender specific details). Using spatial analyses, kernel density mapping, and generalised linear modelling (GLMs), this study identified key ecological and anthropogenic drivers of conflict. Conflict hotspots were predominantly located near fragmented forests, elephant reserves, and agricultural landscapes adjoining forests, with more incidents occurring during the monsoon and post-harvest seasons. Villages with limited or reduced forest connectivity and expanding built-up areas exhibited higher conflict intensity. Fragmentation metrics such as the Largest Patch Index and the Edge Density of the forest were significantly associated with the probability of HEC occurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating ecological restoration, seasonal risk forecasting, and community-driven mitigation strategies such as buffer cropping and early warning systems. This study provides critical insights for prioritising high-risk areas and proposes practical interventions to promote coexistence between humans and elephants in a rapidly transforming landscape.