[Urban Land Use Change and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction in Karst Mountainous Areas: A Case of Guiyang City]

The simulation and application of land use change with "people-land" coupling is an effective means to reveal the driving factors, evolutionary process, and trend of land use/land cover change, which is of great significance for the high-quality development of regional territorial space. Taking Guiyang City, a typical karst mountainous city, as an example, this study explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of land use in Guiyang City in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 using modeling methods such as the land use transfer matrix, PLUS model, and multiclass stochastic patch seeded CA and simulates land use changes and distribution patterns under the natural development scenario, arable land preservation scenario, and ecological priority scenario for the year 2035. The results show that: ① From 2000 to 2020, Guiyang City's arable land, forest land, and grassland area showed a shrinking trend, and the expansion of construction land showed a pattern of "central concentration-axial extension," the expansion intensity of which was significantly related to the strong siphoning effect of being the capital city of the province. Due to the influence of topographic constraints, environmental changes, and ecological fragility, there was a typical "mountain urbanization" path dependence in the shaping of land use patterns in karst areas. ② Socio-economic and traffic location was the main driving factor of land use change in Guiyang City, and elevation and the normalized vegetation index (NVI) were the important factors affecting the land use change in Guiyang City. ③ Based on the comparison of the simulation results of the 2035 scenarios, the eco-priority scenario is a more appropriate development strategy for Guiyang City's future land use, and at the cost of decreasing the growth rate of construction land by 1.2 percentage points, the proportion of ecological land in Guiyang City in the eco-priority scenario could be increased to 61.2% in 2035, compared with 58.7% in 2020. The results of this study can provide reference for the new era of urban territorial spatial planning and sustainable development in mountainous areas.