[Ecological Vulnerability Assessment, Driving Factor Analysis, and Prediction in the Yangtze River Delta Region]

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region holds a significant position in China's economic development and ecological conservation. Clarifying the characteristics and driving factors of ecological vulnerability in this region, as well as predicting future ecological vulnerability, is of great importance for the region's sustainable development. Taking the YRD Region as the study area, this study constructed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment framework that incorporates both ecosystem status and human factors. The spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic evolution features of ecological vulnerability from 2002 to 2022 were evaluated. The driving factors of ecological vulnerability were analyzed in depth using the geographical detector and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, and future ecological vulnerability was predicted based on the CA-Markov model. The results show that: ① From 2002 to 2022, ecological vulnerability index in the YRD Region increased from 0.349 to 0.385. The levels of ecological vulnerability were predominantly moderate and severe, exhibiting a spatial pattern of "higher in the north and lower in the south." ② During the study period, the primary transition in ecological vulnerability levels in the YRD Region was from mild to moderate vulnerability, with a widespread distribution of areas experiencing an increase in vulnerability levels. ③ Vegetation coverage, net primary productivity of vegetation, nighttime light index, and land use intensity were the main indicator factors of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, the impacts of these major indicator factors on ecological vulnerability exhibited certain spatial heterogeneities. ④ According to the predicted results, the ecological vulnerability level in the YRD Region will rise significantly in the short term (from 2022 to 2027) but will tend to stabilize in the long term (from 2027 to 2037). The research findings can provide scientific references for ecological protection and management in the YRD Region.