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Updated: May 28, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
[Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from
Jin-Fang Xiong1,2, Xiao-Man Liu2, Kun Xing3
1Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
None:
Amid intensifying natural disturbances and ongoing socio-economic expansion, landscape structures are increasingly exposed to fragmentation and ecological risk. A systematic assessment of landscape ecological risk, alongside a mechanistic understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces, is essential for sustaining ecosystem stability and mitigating long-term ecological threats. Focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, we analyzed land use data from 2000 to 2022 to assess the evolution of regional landscape patterns and ecological risk. Using correlation analysis and a random forest regression model, we quantified the respective contributions of natural and anthropogenic drivers to spatial risk distribution. The results showed that: ① from 2000 to 2022, land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was dominated by cropland, forest land, and grassland, together accounting for approximately 90% of the total study area. During this period, the proportion of construction land increased significantly, whereas the share of cropland declined steadily. Cropland and grassland were the main land types converted, with outflow areas of 21 800 km2 and 17 000 km2, respectively, primarily transitioning to construction land and forest land. ② Between 2000 and 2022, the overall landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed a declining trend. The areas classified as high-risk and moderately high-risk decreased, whereas those designated as low-risk and moderately low-risk expanded. High-risk zones were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and the northwestern Bashang Plateau and basin regions, where landscape fragmentation is more severe. In contrast, low-risk areas were primarily distributed in the mountainous regions of the west and north, with relatively low-risk levels also observed in urban core areas. ③ The spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is mainly driven by natural environmental factors, among which the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is the most influential driver of the spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk. However, the rapid expansion of the urban space and the continuous growth of the population have increased the ecological risk of the region's landscapes, and the ecological disturbances brought by them should not be ignored.
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