[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services in Giant Panda National Park Based on...

Quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity characteristics of ecosystem services and their response mechanisms to land use changes is of significant scientific value for optimizing regional ecological security patterns and promoting sustainable development. Taking the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) and its surrounding non-protected habitat areas as the research object, this study utilized multi-source data including land use, climate, and soil from 2011 to 2021. The InVEST model was applied to quantify the dynamic evolution patterns of four key ecosystem services: water conservation, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality. By constructing three scenario modes (natural development, ecological protection, and economic development), the PLUS model was used to predict land use patterns in 2031 and analyze the response mechanisms of ecosystem services under different development modes. The results showed that: ① During the study period, both GPNP and non-GPNP areas experienced significant increases in water conservation (35.91% vs. 51.21% increasing rate, same as below) and soil retention (49.19% vs. 78.54%), with carbon storage increasing by 0.36% and 1.53%, respectively. Habitat quality in GPNP demonstrated a phased fluctuating pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, while non-GPNP areas showed continuous but marginally significant improvements. ② Spatial evolution exhibited distinct geographical differentiation: Changes in carbon storage and habitat quality were mainly concentrated in the core areas of the Chengdu Plain urban agglomeration, while increments in water conservation and soil retention were primarily distributed in high-altitude regions of the Minshan Mountain Range, showing synchronous growth trends in both GPNP and non-GPNP areas. ③ Multi-scenario simulations indicated that compared with that under the natural development scenario, the ecological protection mode dominated by national park policies in 2031 would increase soil retention capacity by 44.09% (reaching 3.54×10⁹ t) and significantly enhance carbon storage (adding 1.48×10⁵ t), whereas the economic development mode would lead to degradation of carbon storage and habitat quality. This study reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneous impacts and differential enhancement effects of GPNP construction on ecosystem services, providing a scientific basis for optimizing regional land use structures and coordinating ecological protection with socioeconomic development.